IMPACT OF SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON NON-OIL EXPORTS IN NIGERIA (1986 – 2015)
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ABSTRACT
This study investigated the ‘Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Non-oil Exports in Nigeria’ for both aggregate and disaggregates within the period 1986-2015.Time series secondary data were collected from CBN statistical bulletin for the period of thirty years (1986- 2015). Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing co-integration technique was used to investigate the long-run relationship between the selected macroeconomic variables (real GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate and credit to private sector) with aggregate and disaggregate non-oil exports (agricultural, manufacturing and solid minerals) in Nigeria.. The major findings of this study showed that the selected macroeconomic variables (real GDP, exchange rate fluctuations, inflation rate and credit to private sector had a long-run equilibrium relationship with both aggregate and disaggregate non-oil exports (agriculture, manufacturing and solid minerals) within the period of study at 5 percent level of significance. The findings of this study imply that economic activities and credit to private sector had impacted positively whereas exchange fluctuations and increase in prices of goods and services had impacted negatively on the volume of non-oil exports in Nigeria within the period of study. This study recommended that the government should enhance the productive capacity of the economy through human and capital development, a sound monetary policies to stabilize exchange fluctuations. A friendly and selective credit policy should be initiated by the government to enable the farmers, manufacturers and miners have access to loans.
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