EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON DEMAND FOR IMPORTED CONSUMABLE GOODS IN NIGERIA’S ECONOMY (1981-2014)
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ABSTRACT
This study examined effect of population growth on import demand in Nigeria, within the sample period of 1981-2014. The data for this research work (Gross Domestic Product, population and Exchange Rate) was obtained from the CBN Statistical Bulletin (2014) and analysed using ordinary least squares (OLS) technique. Gross domestic product was regressed against Population and Exchange Rate. Certain econometrics tests were conducted such as Unit Root test, Co integration test, and Vector Auto-Regressive Model. The result showed that Population and Exchange Rate had no effect on economic growth of Nigeria for the period under review. The unit root test indicates that all the variables were stationary at first differencing. The Co integration test revealed that the variables had no long run relationship with economic growth of Nigeria within the sample period this necessitated the application of Vector Auto-Regressive, which revealed that exchange rate was not statistically significant. Also the R2was 0.89, showed that 89% of the changes in GDP was caused by changes in the explanatory variables. The f-statistics was statistically significant meaning that the explanatory variables had joint influence on GDP. The Durbin-Watson showed that there is no autocorrelation in the series. Base on this finding the research recommends among others that; government should embark on a family planning programme (FPP) and also try to use that means to enlighten the populace on the eminent danger of rapid population and its consequences on the economy.
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