The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Economic Stability in Nigeria: An Evaluation of Government Interventions (2000–2020)
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Background of the Study :
Trade policy uncertainty can significantly disrupt economic stability by affecting investor confidence, altering trade flows, and influencing market volatility. In Nigeria, frequent changes in trade regulations and ambiguous policy signals have created an environment of uncertainty. Between 2000 and 2020, the government has introduced various interventions aimed at reducing uncertainty and stabilizing economic performance (Okonkwo, 2023). These interventions include efforts to harmonize trade regulations, negotiate stable trade agreements, and provide clear policy guidelines. Theoretical and empirical literature suggests that lower policy uncertainty fosters higher investment levels, smoother trade operations, and improved economic predictability (Adeniyi, 2024). However, persistent uncertainty, driven by political and economic instability, continues to pose challenges. This study evaluates the extent to which government interventions have mitigated trade policy uncertainty and contributed to economic stability. By analyzing trade data, investment trends, and macroeconomic indicators, the research provides an integrated view of the relationship between policy clarity and economic performance, highlighting areas where further policy improvements are necessary (Chukwu, 2025).
Statement of the Problem
Nigeria’s economy remains vulnerable due to persistent trade policy uncertainty, which undermines investor confidence and destabilizes economic performance. Despite government interventions aimed at clarifying trade policies, inconsistent implementation and external shocks have maintained high levels of uncertainty. This volatility negatively impacts domestic production and foreign investment, leading to erratic economic growth. The study seeks to identify the factors that perpetuate policy uncertainty and evaluate the effectiveness of government measures in stabilizing the economy. Addressing these challenges is essential for creating a more predictable economic environment that supports sustainable growth (Okonkwo, 2023; Adeniyi, 2024).
Objectives of the Study:
1. To assess the impact of trade policy uncertainty on Nigeria’s economic stability.
2. To evaluate the effectiveness of government interventions in reducing uncertainty.
3. To propose measures for enhancing policy predictability.
Research Questions:
1. How does trade policy uncertainty affect economic stability in Nigeria?
2. What are the effects of government interventions on reducing uncertainty?
3. What policy reforms can further stabilize the economy?
Research Hypotheses:
1. H1: Trade policy uncertainty negatively impacts economic stability.
2. H2: Effective government interventions reduce uncertainty.
3. H3: Policy consistency enhances economic predictability.
Significance of the Study (100 words):
This study examines the impact of trade policy uncertainty on Nigeria’s economic stability and evaluates the effectiveness of government interventions. Its findings will inform policymakers on strategies to reduce uncertainty, boost investor confidence, and promote stable economic growth. The research contributes to a better understanding of how clear and consistent trade policies can drive sustainable development (Chukwu, 2025).
Scope and Limitations of the Study:
The study focuses on Nigeria’s trade policy uncertainty and its economic impact from 2000–2020, using macroeconomic and trade data. Limitations include external economic factors and data reliability.
Definitions of Terms:
1. Trade Policy Uncertainty: The unpredictability in trade regulations and policies.
2. Economic Stability: The consistency of growth, low inflation, and minimal market volatility.
3. Government Interventions: Policy actions undertaken by the state to manage economic conditions.
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