THE IMPACT OF FISCAL POLICY ON ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA (1981-2016)
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ABSTRACT
The study examines the impact of fiscal policy on economic performance in Nigeria between 1981 and 2016. Fiscal policy is represented by government total expenditure, government total revenue and direct tax. A model was developed in which economic growth (proxy as economic performance) is expressed as a function of government total expenditure, government total revenue, direct tax, capital (represented as gross capital formation) and labour (represented as employment rate). The study covered a 36-year period ranging from 1981 to 2016. The econometric techniques of Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Cointegration test and Error Correction model estimation.
Three theories were reviewed namely the classical, neo-classical and the endogenous growth model.
The study concludes that fiscal policy was partially effective on economic growth (surrogate of economic performance) in Nigeria between 1981 and 2016.
The study suggest that; Government should enhance investment in productive expenditure including expenditure on education, health, manufacturing, mining and agriculture and also ensure that funds meant for development of these sectors are properly utilized; Government should strive to reduce expenditure on recreational, cultural and religious affairs and other functions like political administrative expenses in order to stabilize the economy; Appropriate mix of fiscal and monetary policies that would effectively stabilize the economy should be pursued; Government should consider restructuring its expenditure pattern by allocating more funds towards productive expenditure such as capital projects; Government should consider harnessing its revenue potentials by expanding its revenue base via effective and efficient taxation system and diversification of Nigeria’s revenue base by tapping into solid minerals and agricultural potentials.
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